Support the Truth: Civil War in Iraq

A few months back, there seemed to be a major debate in the Internet-press about whether it was appropriate to call the situation in Iraq a “civil war”. While the rhetoric meant nothing to the millions of Iraqis directly and indirectly affected by the day-to-day violence, the matter seemed very important in the domestic battle for the “hearts and minds” of Americans. Since then the world has moved on and no one seems to think it so important anymore. Recently, however, it occurred to me that it was easy enough to compare the current situation Iraq, which has only gotten worse since the spring, to the US’s own record with civil war to get a sense of the accuracy or absurdity of this statement.

The table below presents the numbers in detail, but I'll just cut to the chase: between April 1861 and April 1865 the US lost 184,594 American lives, or about 0.13 percent of the total US population each year. In Iraq today, assuming that the death rate of 75 persons per day continues for another 12 months, the country will have lost 0.11 percent of its total population. The 75 persons per day maybe a high estimate and the population estimate may be a bit low, but even so the impact clearly puts the situation in Iraq today in the same ball park as the US Civil War.

Another way to look at the current situation in Iraq is to project the violent death rate there onto the US and adjust for population differences. Using this approach, if Americans were dying at the same rate as Iraqis we would be experiencing about 325,000 violent deaths per year, compared to our actual annual murder rate of about 16,000 per year. In other words, we’d be experiencing 26,796 murders each month instead of 1,345; or, 881 per day instead of 44 per day. And if you want an even more macabre way to understand these numbers, imagine one September 11th every three-and-a-half days.

By these metrics, it seems to me unconscionable that anyone could describe the situation in Iraq as anything other than a tragedy for humanity, a complete failure of neoconservative foreigh policy, and another victory for the red horse of the apocalypse.

Iraqi Civil War

Deaths per day 75

Deaths per year (projected) 27,375

Population (est.) 25,000,000

Annualized deaths as pct. of population 0.11%

US Civil War

US Civil War combat deaths (1) (a) 184,594

US population est. at the time (1) 34,300,000

Annualized death rate (April 1861 to April 1865) (b) 0.13%

Iraq's Violent Death Rate in the US

US Murders in 2004 (2) 16,137

Iraqi murder rate/100,000 population (est.) 109.5

US Population (2004) (3) 293,656,842

US Equivalent of Iraqi murder rate 321,554

Notes:

(a) The usual number of deaths estimated in the Civil War is 620,000. Combat deaths, however, vary from the low reported above to as many as 204,000.

See http://www.civilwarhome.com/casualties.htm for this higher estimate.

(b) Wikipedia

Sources:

(1)The US Civil War Center at LSU. http://www.cwc.lsu.edu/other/stats/warcost.htm

(2) Dept. of Justice, FBI. http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/offenses_reported/violent_crime/murder.html

(3) Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/NC-EST2005-sa.html